In the middle of a busy week in American politics, with significant events like Super Tuesday voting and President Joe Biden's State of the Union speech, China was hosting its own political show. For a ceremonial conference in Beijing, thousands of delegates from all around the country came to endorse the yearly program of the Communist Party-led government, which highlighted home issues and praised Xi Jinping's leadership.
But lurking behind this meeting was the shadow of the next US presidential contest, which is probably going to have former president Donald Trump taking on Biden in November. Though the Chinese officials avoided talking about the US election in public during the Beijing event, the need to turn China into a high-tech superpower was seen as a reaction to the US-China ties and technology limitations imposed by the Biden administration.
Although public remarks were muted, behind closed doors conversations probably covered the possible ramifications of Trump's comeback given his unpredictability in comparison to Biden. Significant trade tariffs that changed US-China ties during Trump's first term may result in more economic separation, which would be problematic for China's economy.
But if Trump wins, the geopolitical environment would change as well, maybe relieving pressure on China as the US and its allies band together to counter perceived threats. China's decision-makers are probably running scenario studies to determine the opportunities and hazards of either candidate winning, especially with relation to Taiwan, the spread of global dominance, and economic stability.
Though later trade disputes soured ties, Trump's first meeting with Xi in 2017 suggested possible cooperation. Further uncertainty for Chinese exports and economic stability is suggested by Trump's current campaign rhetoric, which calls for a continuation of harsh actions against China, including large tariffs.
Biden's strategy, on the other hand, is thought to be more solid even if it involves ongoing tariffs and more stringent restrictions on technology transfers. China's global ambitions are challenged by his focus on alliances in Asia and Europe, especially in view of its high-tech growth and regional domination objectives.
In the end, China expects ongoing US pressure and confrontation, which calls for calculated reactions to protect its interests, regardless of the election result.